VISUAL HANDS-ON

Bitcoin's Quantum Migration

BIP-360 (P2MR) & BIP-361 — prepared not scared

00

Why act now

Quantum computers don't break Bitcoin's hashes — they break its signatures. Once you see exactly what breaks, BIP-360 and BIP-361 become easy to place.

WHAT ACTUALLY BREAKS

Private to public takes an instant. The reverse was supposed to be impossible

Bitcoin's signatures rest on a one-way computation. Deriving a public key from a private key is trivial. Going back is, for classical computers, out of reach. That asymmetry is what protects your coins. Shor's algorithm lets you travel the arrow backwards.

DEMO one_way_street.svg 👆 Flip the switch
PRIVATE KEY A secret only you hold PUBLIC KEY Visible to anyone on-chain easy · instant No route for classical computers Hash functions are not the target here. The exposure risk lives in public keys on the curve.

So there are only two defences: keep the public key out of sight (BIP-360's job), and replace the signature scheme with one quantum computers can't solve (a future PQ signature BIP's job).

SHARED NOTATION

Five states of a key

Every diagram from here on paints keys in one of these five colours. Learn the colours and you can read the diagrams without reading the prose.

HIDDEN

Public key sits behind a hash. Nobody has seen it yet

EXPOSED

Public key is on-chain. A target for long exposure attacks

BROKEN

Private key has been derived by a quantum computer

PQ

Protected by post-quantum signatures (future, separate BIP)

RESCUE

Spendable only through a rescue protocol

LONG EXPOSURE ATTACK

Follow one coin through its life

When a public key gets exposed depends on your address type and on what you do. Pick an address type, press the action buttons, and watch the key change colour.

DEMO coin_lifecycle.sim 👆 Press an action button
YOUR WALLET 1.00000000 Held ON-CHAIN OUTPUT ADDRESS bc1q7k4…m9x2 What the output commits to HASH160(pubkey) PUBLIC KEY HIDDEN ハッシュの後ろ QUANTUM CAPABILITY 256 bit = Bitcoin's keys 15 bit (2026.4 実証)
Address typeP2WPKH
Public key未露出
Long exposure riskなし
At this capability破られない
    Address type
    Capability 15 bit

    Figures illustrate the concept. On the capability scale, 6 and 15 bits are demonstrated results; everything above them is a hypothetical marker. It is not a time axis.

    What this shows

    bc1p (Taproot) is amber from the moment it's funded. The output itself is a public key on the curve, so it is exposed even if you never spend. That's why P2TR is marked vulnerable in BIP-360's table.

    Exposure can't be undone. Once a public key is on-chain it stays there forever. All you can do is move the funds sitting under that key somewhere else.

    SHORT EXPOSURE ATTACK

    A race against the next block

    Whatever address you use, spending means showing your public key. If someone derives the private key in the short window before the transaction confirms, they can take the funds. No amount of key hygiene prevents this one.

    DEMO mempool_race.sim 👆 Pick a speed and run
    ① Time to confirmation ≈ 10 min
    ② Attacker's key derivation
    READY Pick a speed, then press Run the race.
    Quantum computer speed

    A conceptual simulation. Real quantum computers cannot yet derive a 256-bit key at all — the demonstrated result is 15 bits — so every speed level here is hypothetical.

    THE PIVOT

    BIP-360 (P2MR) cannot win this race. P2MR only addresses long exposure attacks; a spend still reveals a Schnorr public key in the witness. The BIP itself states that P2MR does not by itself protect against short exposure attacks, and that these can be mitigated by future activation of post-quantum signatures.

    TABLE FROM BIP-360

    Long exposure vulnerability by output type

    This table appears in BIP-360 itself. Tap a row to see why it lands where it does.

    Type Long exposure Prefix

    * Funds become vulnerable any time the script reveals a public key, for example through address reuse. Sharing extended public keys (xpubs) or wallet descriptors also exposes quantum-vulnerable public key information. — note in BIP-360

    WHERE WE STAND

    The threat is still distant. The deadlines are not

    HONEST NOTE

    On 24 April 2026, Project Eleven's Q-Day Prize was won by breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key with a variant of Shor's algorithm on publicly accessible quantum hardware — a 512-fold jump from the 6-bit result of September 2025. It is still nowhere near Bitcoin's 256 bits.

    Estimates of the hardware needed vary widely. Google's April 2026 white paper put a 256-bit attack under 500,000 physical qubits; a later Caltech/Oratomic paper brought that down to 10,000 using a neutral-atom architecture. Both are theoretical estimates.

    BIP-361 cites a McKinsey report for the range of 2027–2030 at the earliest. That is the BIP’s cited projection, not a settled forecast. BIP-360 takes a different approach: it argues preparation is worthwhile whether or not such a computer ever materialises, and makes no prediction about timing.

    2030 CNSA 2.0

    Mandates post-quantum migration for software and networking equipment, with browsers and operating systems by 2033

    2035 NIST IR 8547

    Plans to disallow ECC across the US federal government, with an exception for hybrid cryptography

    34%+ EXPOSED

    As of 1 March 2026, over 34% of all bitcoin have revealed a public key on-chain (BIP-361)

    NEXT

    Two proposals answer these two attacks. BIP-360 builds a vessel that never shows a public key (01); BIP-361 sets a deadline for moving into it (02). Both are Drafts, and no activation is planned.